The schedule slides into December in Week 13, signaling winter for fans of betting NFL underdogs.
The first dozen weeks of NFL action have been pet friendly for the past 13 years, with underdogs covering at a 53.1% clip between Week 1 and Week 12. However, once we hit the final page of our calendar (are those still a thing?), those dogs dip to 49.4% winners for the rest of the regular season.
That swing in underdog success has been amplified in recent campaigns, with point spread pups covering at a 56.2% rate in the opening 12 weeks since 2019 but slumping to just 49.2% from Week 13 onward.
Last year saw underdogs go 100-76-1 ATS in the first three months of the season (56.8%) and wrap December (and a bit of January) at just 41-49-2 ATS (45.7%). As for 2022, NFL underdogs enter Week 13 with a glowing 96-76-6 ATS mark (55.6%), which means regression is about to rear its ugly head.
So why do NFL underdogs suddenly get neutered in December?
At this point in the season, the playoff picture is very much framed and teams that most often get tabbed as underdogs are more than likely not within those borders. The sharpest of professional sports bettors have a technical term for these types of teams: Shitty.
Shitty teams have mixed motivations in December, with some fighting to the finish while others are counting down the days until the offseason. That’s why short dogs — competitive dogs — have more bite in the home stretch, with underdogs of +3 or shorter covering at a near 52% rate from Week 13 forward since 2010.
Bigger underdogs of +6 or higher don’t always make the most of that padding, covering just 49.4% of the time and the in-between underdogs — those of +3.5 to +5.5 — are a horrific 45.9% ATS beyond Week 12 over the last 13 seasons.
While these trends shouldn’t stop you from playing a hefty underdog or fading a short pup, you should always keep them in mind — along with motivation — when taking the points in the home stretch of the season.
Here are my underdog NFL picks and predictions for Week 13.
